Worries about geopolitics, the solvency of the United States and the strength of its currency, and missing out on the returns of rising markets have single-family offices acting unusually. Half of the wealthiest private investors think we’re headed toward harder times, and more of them than ever before are planning changes to their strategic asset allocations, yet portfolios generally remain “risk-on,” according to UBS’s 2026 Global Family Office Report.
Last year’s annual report, based on surveys completed January through April, was all about family offices bracing for a possible trade war that eventually materialized. This year, offices have different, deeper concerns.
When asked about the risks they faced over the coming 12 months, 64% of family offices cited major geopolitical conflict, 49% a global trade war, and 39% higher inflation. Over the next five years, major geopolitical conflict remained the top concern (61%), but offices also said their future risks include a debt crisis (56%), followed closely by a financial market crisis (51%) and a global recession (50%). UBS surveyed 307 family offices this year, with an average net worth of $2.7 billion and across more than 30 markets.
“We're seeing this new world where investors are starting to understand that geopolitical challenges are likely to persist. The economic uncertainty, the geopolitical fragmentations, the way in which the world order is being run,” is different, Daniel Scansaroli, the global investment management head of portfolio strategy and multi-asset solutions for the Americas at UBS, told Modus.
In this year’s UBS survey, 60% of family offices—the largest share in the survey’s history—are planning to make changes to their asset allocation over the next 12 months. In previous years, about a third or less have said the same. This also varies meaningfully by region. Only 21% of U.S. family offices surveyed this year plan to make changes to their asset allocation.
Nonetheless, with procyclicality in mind, family-office portfolios are being “positioned for a risk-on scenario…for growth,” Scansaroli said.
Family office portfolios don’t change dramatically year over year, but the adjustments below are happening.
The U.S. dollar was prominently featured in the 2026 UBS report, as offices mitigate their exposure to it. Currencies haven’t been a focus in the past, but confidence in the dollar is waning. Most family offices, or 65%, expect confidence in the dollar’s reserve role to weaken over the coming year and only 6% anticipate it to improve.
This is partly because of the survey participants. The majority of offices were located in Switzerland (14%), the rest of Europe (30%), and the Asia Pacific region (23%), and had exposure to more currencies and international interests. Just 12% of family offices surveyed were based in the U.S., although they, too, are increasingly mindful of the U.S. national debt and the dollar, and of the ultimate impact of those on their portfolios, according to Scansaroli.
“We've gotten past what nobody wants to talk about anymore, which is: COVID and all the fiscal stimulus. The U.S. was the best house on a bad block. We were the first ones out there in terms of stimulus and hiking rates when we needed to,” strengthening the dollar’s purchasing power relative to other currencies and making U.S. investments more attractive, Scansaroli said. Since then, rising inflation has slowed rate hikes by the Treasury, and other central banks could start closing the gap that has been created.
“We're going to see more parity between what's happening in central banks globally…and individuals who got way overweight the dollar are looking to take some of those risks off the table,” Scansaroli said.
Growing concerns about the U.S. dollar and national debt have fueled interest in gold, even as the price remains near an all-time high. In past reports, offices typically invested roughly 2% of their portfolios in precious metals, including gold. In 2026, they plan to invest an average of 3% in gold alongside other metals.
Gold is up 35% from a year ago, and the S&P 500 index is up 27% during the same period.
“It is remarkable, especially after the rally that we've had. But the more geopolitical uncertainty that we see, with falling real rates, that tends to be supportive for gold, and it tends to go against the dollar,” Scansaroli said.
Allocations to real estate are shrinking, but not all family offices. Globally, the average allocation to real estate has gradually shrunk from 14% in 2019 to 11% in 2025, and the target this year is 8%. The exception is the U.S., where the average allocation has doubled over the last three years to 20% and it's expected to remain there.
An imbalance in the U.S. is impossible to ignore. “There is just not enough supply, especially in multifamily housing,” Scansaroli said. That, coupled with depreciation and the tax benefits in the U.S., has made the asset class even more attractive.
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Infrastructure is showing up in more portfolios. Offices have allocated an average of 1% over the past two years (the average before was always zero), and they plan to allocate 2% in 2026. Like many investors, they realize how much energy and resources will be required to power the AI revolution upon us and are seeking ways to invest in it.
Private-credit scares haven’t fazed family offices. They filled out the UBS survey at the height of headlines about a few defaults by huge companies, such as First Brands, and a possible private-credit bubble. Investors also got skittish and yanked money from the publicly traded credit funds, and asset managers slowed redemptions.
Family offices haven’t blinked, which surprised Scansaroli a little. Private credit is a small part of the typical family-office portfolios, 3% on average, and they plan to keep it that way.
“Base rates have come down, spreads have compressed, but they're still getting above-average yield,” Scansaroli said. “Yes, defaults have picked up a little bit, but they're not reacting to this like this is going down. They may have redeemed a little bit, but they're generally staying invested. They're recognizing the diversification benefits of it, the low volatility, and they're being very selective in terms of which types of private debt companies they're underwriting with their sponsors.”
Family offices are investing less in private equity—both in funds and directly in companies. From 2019 to 2023, allocations to private equity (including funds, funds of funds, co-investments, and direct investments in companies) increased from 16% to 22%. Then offices allocated 21% in 2024 and 17% in 2025. They plan on 17% again this year.
A lack of capital distributions continues to frustrate investors, including offices, especially as they compare their expected private-equity returns with recent public-equity market performance. A handful of mega initial public offerings are expected to happen in the coming months, and overall deal activity has rebounded somewhat. But hopes and anticipation can’t be redeployed. Given their outlook on the coming years, offices are choosing other asset classes to invest in.
Private equity remains a core part of most family-office portfolios but the difference between 22% and 17% is significant. Consider some napkin math for UBS survey respondents: About 300 offices, with an average net worth of $2.7 billion, hold $810 billion in assets. The difference between 22% and 17% of that pie allocated to private equity is $178 billion and $137 billion, respectively, for a difference of $41 billion. Of course, not all of that turns over each year, but it’s safe to assume that, in aggregate, billions of dollars do. And remember, that’s a rough estimation of UBS survey participants.
Deloitte estimates there are over 8,000 offices worldwide with a total of $3.1 trillion in wealth. Most are much smaller than the average UBS survey respondent. But if a fraction of them are making similar changes to their private-equity allocations, that represents many billions of dollars fewer that might otherwise have flowed into the asset class.
Specific circumstances also matter a lot here. For example, an office might choose to allocate less to private equity. Depending on the office's returns, rebalancing the rest of its portfolio, and any new cash to invest from an operating company, it could, in theory, still end up investing as many dollars as it did in recent years, or more.
How each family office invests in private equity can vary widely, but if the UBS report is any indication, they are also choosing to make fewer direct investments and or to write smaller checks. Through 2019, 2020 and 2021, offices allocated more to direct investments than funds. (In 2021, they allocated 13% to direct investments and 8% to funds or funds of funds.) Since then, they have allocated the same amount to each investment type, or more to funds.
“We definitely see a lot of interest in direct deals. They are inquiring, ‘What are the direct investments that you can give me access to? What's unique out there?’ But they also want those diversified allocations. We've seen, essentially, a fairly even split between them investing in funds versus going direct,” Scansaroli said.
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How does Integris Aviation work with family offices?
Family offices usually call us with a specific aviation issue or need, but there are lots of those. It could be purchasing a new aircraft, especially their first one. Or they have an operational issue, such as creating a fair-use policy for family members that dictates the hours allotted per year, chargeback policies, booking priority, and ecetera.
What are some other reasons family offices call you?
We are also contacted to conduct benchmark surveys. We can quickly evaluate their aviation program and offer recommendations to make it more efficient and better aligned with the family's long-term goals.
How do offices get in touch about that?
They can reach out to me, David Clark, by email: david@integrisaviation.com.
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