To longtime subscribers and new ones, Happy New Year!
On December 20, I sent my first annual letter about Modus to memorialize some of last year's highs and lows, celebrate what was achieved, serve as a sort of note to investors (even though Modus hasn’t raised any capital and has no plans to do so), and share what’s next. The response to it was incredibly heartening. Thank you for all the kind and constructive replies.
Every week, Modus strives to deliver impartial, impactful journalism for family-office professionals. This requires continuous personal work as a journalist. I always try my best to be mindful of my own biases and opinions and keep them separate from my work.
However, at the start of each year, for one newsletter, I’m going to break with that tradition and share what I think will happen in the coming 12 months, along with my view on why.
Lists of predictions are always precarious and often dull. This soothsaying is at least informed by hundreds of in-person meetings, phone calls, email threads, and texts over the past year with professionals who work for or with family offices.
Below, in no particular order, are Modus’s family-office predictions for 2026. Tell me if you agree with or disagree, what I failed to include, or any other thoughts you have.
Some A.I. reality is going to set in. Most family offices are groups of roughly 10 people responsible for a few hundred million dollars in assets and, often, a long list of other responsibilities. They face small-business challenges: there are only so many resources, workers and hours in each day, and a lot needs to get done.
But A.I. won't make offices that much more efficient this year.
It's true that family offices are being run with increased professionalism and sophistication, but the vast majority of offices will continue to do two things: Use A.I. tools within the software they already regularly use, such as Microsoft Copilot, or use the popular third-party applications they are already familiar with, such as ChatGPT or Perplexity (whether it's approved or not).
In a team of only half a dozen people, what role can A.I. replace? The answer is none. You still need at least one portfolio manager, accountant, lawyer, or personal assistant to use their respective A.I. tools for their tasks.
More efficient espresso machines didn’t replace baristas at coffee shops — the baristas just churn out drinks faster.
More family offices will outsource investment management. To the ire of some, Modus reported on this periodically last year. Building investment portfolios is hard, and selecting individual companies to invest in only adds another layer of complexity.
Most offices don't have the budget or appetite to keep expanding their investment staff. If they need or want help pursuing investments they lack expertise in or access to, they will call OCIOs.
There will be more family-office reports. Do we need more? I don’t know. But new ones, beyond the long-standing ones, will be published in 2026. In my entire journalism career, I can’t recall any other reports being repurposed and referenced so many times over the months that followed their publication. These things are brand-building gold for the banks.
There will be more family-office journalism. And I’m not only talking about Modus.
For most of the past 15 years, news organizations have been slow or poor at adapting to social media and consumer preferences, articulating the value of their work, and making their businesses more sustainable. Today, large organizations recognize the value in smaller audiences, are zeroing in on them, and launching new products and franchises to grow their businesses. Small ones like Modus are springing up, too, as the relative cost of starting an independent media company has fallen to the floor.
One example: Last year, Bloomberg News hosted an inaugural Family Office Summit and started sending a monthly newsletter to subscribers that aggregates its family-office-related stories.
This is great for family offices. Competition for their limited time to read newsletters, listen to podcasts and attend conferences and dinners will make all of those things better.
Modus will host its first event in 2026. I've attended enough of these things to know what makes them worthwhile. Details to come.
More venture-backed software companies building something for family offices will launch. And most of those will ultimately fail. Assume an estimate of 10,000 single-family offices globally by 2030, about 3,000 more than there are today. What are the SAM and SOM? Those numbers are small in software terms, even when you charge tens of thousands of dollars.
This is why most (all?) of the software companies that cater to single-family offices are also targeting multifamily offices, a.k.a. independent wealth management firms — and those aren't much easier to identify as prospects and sell software to...
The adage “if you’ve seen one family office, you’ve seen one family office” will, unfortunately, live on. This trope, which I heard and read 100 times in 2025, is a disservice to the growing ecosystem of professionals and organizations that work with family offices.
Every family is different, I’ll give you that. Families consist of people who are all unique and have complex relationships with one another. Those dynamics are almost certainly reflected in businesses, family offices, investments, and more.
But even if every family office is a snowflake, you can still scoop a lot of those up with a shovel. An infinite number of circumstances, scenarios, wants, and needs does not require an infinite number of solutions. In reality — when compared to the rest of the world — family offices are rare. Extreme is the best word for that wealth. But among them, there are many commonalities and a growing number of professionals with experience in making and advising offices on a wide range of choices.
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Jobs
- The Zell Family Office is hiring an accounting manager in Chicago. This person will lead the accounting operations for family trusts, personal accounts, investment partnerships and foundations. Base salary is $160,000.
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- Americo Financial Life and Annuity is hiring a family office accounting and tax controller to support the family office of its corporate ownership.
Other Stuff
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I'll be...
- At QC Spa New York today.
- And N.Y.C. for the coming months.
