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Random dates from the 19th, 20th and 21st centuries. Illustration by Modus.
Who do you anticipate will be the next owner of the family business?
No matter the company's size or industry, or the decade you ask, family-business owners give the same answer: their family.
This was one finding from a report published this week by the Family Business Consulting Group (FBCG), which helps family-owned businesses make decisions about succession planning and leadership, and Plante Moran, the accounting, tax, consulting and wealth management firm.
The two organizations wanted to see what has changed about family businesses and their owners over the decades. To do that, they used the same questions from a 3,000-person mail survey in 1995 and surveyed 600 people in 2025.
Because the sample sizes are small and the same respondents didn’t take both surveys, it’s hard to interpret some of the results.
The FBCG-Plante Moran report found that, adjusted for inflation, family businesses with annual revenue over $150 million accounted for 27% of respondents—more than quadruple the percentage in 1995. That could be a reflection of the smaller cohort and the specific owners surveyed, not an increase in the share of family-owned businesses making that much money. (Then again, research published last month also estimated there are now 65,000 centimillionaires in the U.S. and almost all of them are business owners, so maybe the percentage has climbed?)
But answers to some survey questions undoubtedly tell a story. Thirty years later, as much as ever, family-business owners still believe a relative will be the next owner, and they think that will remain the case for decades to come.
In the 1995 survey, the median family enterprise was started in 1952, and the oldest began in the 1740s. In 2025, the median start year was 1961 (fewer than 20% were founded in the last 35 years), and the oldest began in 1835. Between the surveys, the oldest company represented was founded almost 100 years later, but the median founding year was only 10 years older. In other words, family ownership generally seems to be lasting longer.
Families are also just as confident they can keep their ownership streaks alive. In 1995, 68% expected a family member to be the next owner, 23% an outside sale, 7% a sale to a nonfamily member, and 2% a public offering. In 2025, 66% said the same. This hardly changed after 30 years; 66% expected a family member to be the next owner, 29% an outside sale, 4% a sale to a nonfamily member, and 1% a public offering.
The shift in sale expectations from a nonfamily member to an outside owner likely reflects the progressive growth of these family businesses and the concentration of profits paid to the current owners. Fewer nonfamily employees can probably afford to buy majority stakes in these businesses, and if a family member isn’t interested or capable of taking it over, other businesses or sponsors would need to be the buyers.
Near-term and long-term expectations for family ownership also remain. In 1995, 91% of respondents expected family control to continue in the next 5 years. In 2025, that percentage rose to 95%, and 86% expected their family would still control their business in 10 years, and 70% expected the same in 20 years.
That’s a lot of confidence, given that fewer have plans in place. Succession issues are happening simultaneously within families, their family offices and, unsurprisingly, their family businesses. Thirty years ago, 44% of family businesses had named a CEO successor. Now, only 35% have one lined up.
A message from Orbis
Could AI turn investors into herds of “turbo sheep”?
More data, faster analysis and greater computing power have transformed investing over the decades. But they’ve failed to eliminate herding, panic and euphoria among investors. If anything, they may have amplified these behaviors.
Will AI finally make markets rational, or simply turbocharge the forces behind booms and busts?
In this paper, Orbis explains:
The biggest investing mistakes are rarely caused by a shortage of information or processing power. What matters is how we use those.
AI processes information better and more efficiently than humans. The danger is that it may encourage us to think less independently, move faster and act with unwarranted conviction.
We believe AI is genuinely transformative, and we are embracing it ourselves. But these new tools will only be effective if we use them to generate fresh insights and independent thinking.
As defined in applicable securities law, this information is intended for qualified purchasers in the United States.
More News
Last week in Modus: A New Family-Office Tech Map: Nearly 100 Companies and More Categories. (Here’s the market map, if you want to go straight to it.)
Gerard Wertheimer, co-owner of Chanel, created a Swiss family office to oversee some of his $43 billion fortune, Bloomberg reported. In 1991, his half-brother, Charles Heilbronn, set up Mousse Partners, the New York-based family office that manages the family's estimated $86 billion of wealth. Mousse Partners established another Geneva entity, Mousseknuckle, about a decade ago, but it hasn’t been commercially active—the Bloomberg story includes those details and more background on the family’s offices and management.
Higher interest rates are here and already hurting small private-equity firms, while fundraising is on pace for its worst year since at least 2020, The Wall Street Journal reported.
Private foundation portfolios are on a hot streak, keeping giving notably strong despite “changes in public policy, shifting community needs and ongoing uncertainty for many organizations,” according to Foundation Source's 2026 Report on Private Philanthropy.
How governments spend money by the FT has some great charts.
HSBC and MIT Sloan launch programme for UHNW heirs, Spear’s reported.
Here’s your weekend read, from Bloomberg’s Businessweek: Why Is Tech Billionaire Marc Andreessen So Mad?
Jobs
Chief of staff. Vinod Khosla is hiring one. “This role is designed as a three-year commitment, with the opportunity to develop your judgment through direct work with Vinod, founders, and experts across disciplines.” (Menlo Park “every day”; “generally from 8 a.m. to 8 p.m.”; no salary or benefit details.)
Investment analyst / associate. An uncommon junior role at a family-office-esque firm. Pritzker Alternative Strategies (PAS) invests the money of Tony Pritzker’s family and other family offices into U.S. and European lower-middle-market private-equity funds, co-investments, secondaries, continuation vehicles and more. It favors emerging managers raising their first or early funds, as well as technology, services, manufacturing, and healthcare sectors. This person will contribute immediately to the four-person investment team, work closely with its investment advisors, and engage with other family offices.
In the past, good grades at a top school, Excel skills, and having logged into PitchBook before might have put you in the running for a job like this, but not anymore. PAS is looking for a future star, with all the usual requirements plus “genuine fluency with AI tools and the appetite to build with them. Coding or scripting ability, a project or product you have built end to end, or a habit of teaching yourself new technical skills all count here.”
Qualified candidates should send their resume and cover letter to [email protected].
“The cover letter matters to us: tell us why you are interested in and a good fit for this role, and what you find interesting about private equity or about a manager or business you have looked at and formed a view on. (Chicago; 5 days in the office; it offers a salary, bonus, and other benefits but few specific details.)Associate or vice president, investments. The investment team at a $10 billion single-family office in the Chicago area is looking for an all-hats investor. This person should have 5-10 years of experience in private equity, co-investments, or other allocator experience at an LP. Recruitment firm Pinnacle Group has the search. (Chicago; 5 days in the office; no salary or benefit details.)
The “Jobs” section is wholly curated and written by me. Modus is not compensated by any candidate, recruiter, or hiring firm for inclusion. If you have an open position you want to share here, reply to this email or send it to: [email protected].
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I’ll be in…
In Prospect Heights, eating Chinese takeout, drinking beers and playing video games because my wife is traveling and can’t stop me!
